Top 10 securities firms: 2020 A-shares incremental funds will reach trillions of yuan
For stocks, please read Jin Qilin analyst research report, authoritative, professional, timely, and comprehensive, to help you tap potential potential opportunities!
Haitong Securities: The spring market will continue, and the incremental funds of A shares will reach trillions in 2020. ① The pattern of foreign exchange inflows of A shares remains unchanged: the appreciation of RMB this year, the valuation of A shares is lower than that of US stocks, and the long-term international index will increase the weight of A shares.
② Spring market continues: domestic macro policies are warmer, monthly economic data has stabilized, and the first-phase trade agreement between China and the United States has been implemented. We expect that the spring market will eventually evolve into a bull market.
③ Focusing on the 20-year expectation, the technology and securities dealers whose profit growth is recovering are better. In the spring market stage, both underestimated varieties are taken into account.
Anxin Securities: The spring market will continue, and the focus will return to the fundamentals. From a medium and long-term perspective, A shares are in a mature cow.
The core logic of mature cattle is the development direction of the Chinese economy. Therefore, the main industry lines of the corresponding A-share 深圳桑拿网 market are technology, medicine and consumption. This medium-to-long-term main line will not easily change, and it is not appropriate to switch lightly.
Among them, the current prosperity of different sub-sectors, medium-term space, estimates, policy guidelines, capital attributes and risks affect the leading sectors in different stages, and other sectors will follow the overall growth in the bull market. If you want to emphasize style switching, you need macroeconomicsGreat changes have taken place in the financial environment.
In the short term, market risk appetite may gradually cool down, but the overall economy is still stable, the financial environment is generally loose, and the spring market will continue.
The focus of the market will return to fundamentals, especially the quarterly report.
It is expected 深圳SPA会所 that the growth sector will still show an upward trend in the first quarter. At the same time, under the expected recovery of the manufacturing industry, at the low inventory level, there will also be structural upswing opportunities in the sectors that benefit from the improvement of fundamental margin support, such as some machinery, chemicals, nonferrous metals, etc.
Founder Securities (Protection of Rights): Industrial trends are the decisive basis for a growing bull market1. Major technological innovations that trigger industrial trends in the long run are the decisive basis for a bullish growth style.
Behind the growth bull market in 2010, 2013 and 2015 is the logic behind the changing trend of the mobile Internet industry.
2. The growth of the bull market requires a policy environment and suitable catalysts that are conducive to the growth of the industry.
3. The macroeconomic environment, market environment and liquidity environment are not the decisive or necessary conditions for the growth of the bull market, but it will affect the rhythm and height of the market.
4. The deterministic upward trend of the 5G industry, the friendly policy environment, and the catalysis of 5G mobile phone replacement will bring wonderful and unusual growth in the market in 2020.
CITIC Securities: Estimated return to performance, before the holiday is the best time to allocate value. The market has entered a performance matching period after the forecast of rapid rise and rise. It is expected that the performance elasticity will restrict the estimated expansion more and more; incremental capital inflows are stillInertia, but the pace is expected to accelerate after the Spring Festival, and the market still needs time to digest the structural impact of the implementation of the first phase of the agreement.
Considering the rhythm of capital inflows and incremental capital gains, as well as the “cost” of matching performance with estimates, it is the best time to allocate value before the holiday. It is recommended to focus on the banking, insurance, food and beverage, home appliances, pharmaceutical and medical services sectors.
GF Securities: In the second phase of “Winter Warmth”, technological growth continues to dominate the second phase of “Winter Warmth”, and technological growth continues to dominate.
The discount rate has driven the “slow cow on the financial supply side”, and the “warm winter weather” is in the second stage.
Industry configuration: (1) Historical experience Before the Spring Festival, the liquidity was relatively large and abundant, and continued to pay attention to the “industrial cycle and liquidity resonance” of technology growth stocks: consumer electronics, new energy automotive industry chain mid-upper stream (see 1).
15 “Can the theme of new energy vehicles transition?”
》, Game; (2) Active replenishment is one of the three major determinants in 2020, and we will continue to focus on the industries that benefit from the “first replenishment” (industrial metal / glass / rubber).
New Era Securities: Will Explosive Funds Become Reverse Indicators?
However, since 2009, the volume of public fund offerings has been mainly an inverse indicator (11 times, 6 major adjustments, and 3 small adjustments), mainly because the public fund’s right to speak in the stock market has continued to decline, resulting in each timeThe volume of equity fund issuance is all late growth.
But we think this time is different, and it may repeat the return of public discourse right from 2006 to 2007.
Because in the bear market and shock market of 2015-2018, most of the other products (private equity, personal, and hot money) of public fund performance, the performance is still remarkable.
The amount of public fund issuance will no longer be a lagging indicator, or even a synchronous indicator, and even a periodical indicator can become a leading indicator. The emergence of explosive funds will become the reason we continue to be bullish on A shares.
Huatai Securities: Maintain the judgment that the index has upward space or greater than the downward space. 3000 points with a high probability. A solid Huatai Strategy Research Report believes that the outstanding feature of the A-share market since December last year is the spread of the trend of incremental capital entry, and the economic recovery is weak.The two logical lines are interpreted in parallel with the wide liquidity, but the strong trend of both lines may not be sustainable. It is expected that the subsequent large probability will converge from one direction to the other. The verification time point or after February.
Initially, to maintain the judgment that the index’s upward space is greater than the downward space, a large probability of 3000 points is solid.
In terms of configuration, continue to pay attention to industrial opportunities such as building materials / automobiles / appliances / construction, and focus on tapping the selection of individual stocks of electric new / mechanical (industrial control, industrial robots, etc.). The structure of the camera layout Q1 gradually decreases after the three “big years”Electric vehicles, midstream, electronics, cloud computing) opportunities.
CITIC Construction Investment Securities: Periodic economic recovery, stocks and convertible bonds investment is the best window period CITIC Construction Investment Strategy Report believes that under the environment of economic phased recovery and loose liquidity, this is the best for stock and convertible bond investmentIn the window period, bond allocation is also a better point in time, and the capital market continues to rise during the shock.
From the perspective of industry configuration, first of all, the electronics industry represented by semiconductors, cloud computing and domestic software represented by the computer industry continued to boom, and technology 50 represented growth stocks and continued to recommend.
In fact, the brokerage sector has performed very well, and it is expected that the capital market will be more active by 2020, and the brokerage sector is also the direction of priority allocation.
China Merchants Securities: The current research report on investment promotion strategies for the start of explosive funds or residents’ funds accelerating into the market believes that the current domestic economy remains stable, the policies are relatively friendly, the amplitude level is gradually declining, the currency value is steadily increasing, and the external environment is improving.Excellent investment environment.
The recent outbreak of funds came one after another. From the perspective of liquidity or estimates, the current environment of fund issuance exceeded 10 billion yuan in 2006, so we think it is the beginning of the current explosive funds or the accelerated entry of residential funds into the market.
Coinciding with the upward cycle of science and technology, technology and medicine are currently the first choices. If the economic data further declines, it will increase the construction and automobile real estate of steady growth.
Guosheng Securities: Why is there a lack of mainline recently?
The cycle has yet to be “disordered anyway” 1. After the economic phase has stabilized, it has entered the replenishment cycle, and the denominator side has further loosened the dynamic attenuation. 2. The currency easing effect is sinking from financial markets to entities.
Driven by fiscal advances and continuous monetary easing (reduction of standards, policy rate cuts, etc.), market liquidity continues to be loose.
In addition, due to seasonal and Chinese New Year factors, the demand for physical funds is weak, and financial market liquidity is more abundant.
Subsequent consecutive Chinese New Year gradually entered the peak of construction (Jin Qilin analyst) period, the effect of monetary easing will gradually sink from the financial market to the real economy, the marginal factors of funds supporting the stock market weakened marginally.
3, the molecular end improvement signal is more clear.
With the recent continuous improvement of the denominator, the market’s focus on economic fundamentals and corporate profits has declined. The economy has entered a replenishment cycle and ushered in a periodical repair, which is fully expected by the market.
In the future, the power of the denominator will gradually decline, and the economic recovery signal will continue to appear. The market will return to the main line of the numerator. The cycle will be the most beneficial direction, and the core asset revaluation will continue.