Dali Science and Technology (002214): The industry-level application of the leading civilian product of anti-epidemic infrared temperature measurement equipment is bearing fruit
1.On January 29th, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology’s website reported that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology’s Electronic Information Department organized Zhejiang Dali Science and Technology Co., Ltd. and other three automatic infrared thermal imaging thermometers. Hand-held infrared thermometer manufacturers provided supplies to the affected areas as soon as possible.
2.Our analysis and judgment (1) The front line of epidemic resistance, the demand for infrared temperature measurement equipment is strong. According to the latest information from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology ‘s website on February 2nd, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has received about 20,000 units of infrared temperature detectors in various aspects, handheld.There are more than 300,000 units. The above data are only preliminary forecasts.
According to the calculation of the epidemic prevention and control indicators, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology estimates that the entire market will require about 60,000 automatic infrared body temperature detectors and about 550,000 handheld devices.
Judging from the current market capacity, the gap has been broken, but the reorganized production enterprises have resumed work after the holiday, and the market demand has gradually filled the gap.
After the epidemic, Dali Technology responded quickly and invested in two products, the body temperature intelligent screening system and the handheld body temperature screener, to quickly identify patients with hyperthermia in crowded places such as airports, stations, and docks.Provide evidence for late medical epidemic prevention.
We believe that the company, as one of the three companies that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology organizes to supply to the affected areas, is expected to benefit significantly from the blowout of infrared temperature measurement equipment in the short term.
In the future, 南京桑拿网 people will pay more attention to prevention awareness, and the need for stocking in crowded places will ensure the sustainable contribution of the company’s infrared temperature measurement equipment.
Looking into the next two years, considering the short-term and long-term demand impact of the epidemic, it is expected that the infrared temperature measurement business will contribute revenue to the company in 2020 and 2021.
600 million and 2.
400 million, helping the company’s civilian products business take another step.
(2) Deeply plowing the power industry, inspection robots are welcoming a rapid growth period. According to the State Grid ‘s outlook and advancement of intelligent operation inspection technology for transformer substations, it has become an inevitable trend to use robots instead of manual inspection tasks.
According to the statistics and forecast of China Electric Power Enterprise Federation, the number of domestic 110KV and above substations is currently more than 20,000, and it is expected to exceed 30,000 in 2020.
In addition, according to the plans of the State Grid and China Southern Power Grid, the intelligent transformation rate of reconstruction hubs and central substations will reach 100%.
According to the forecast of the intelligent transformation progress of 10% per year, in the next five years, the annual demand for domestic inspection robots for substations will be 2,000 to 3,000 units, valued at about 1.6 billion to 2.4 billion, and the market space is broad.
With the continuous increase in the number of variants, the number of distributions has increased geometrically. It is difficult to achieve comprehensive and accurate inspections simply relying on human labor. Therefore, the inspection of robotic products to replace distribution stations is particularly urgent.
According to the “Distribution Network Construction and Transformation Action Plan”, the domestic distribution automation coverage rate will reach 90% by 2020.
If 20% of automated distribution stations use intelligent inspection equipment, the annual demand for distribution station inspection robots will exceed 10,000 in the next five years.
In recent years, the company has been deeply cultivating the power industry. The inspection robot technology has become increasingly mature, the market development has achieved remarkable results, and it will continue to benefit in the future.
In addition, the company has mastered the core infrared imaging technology. Compared with other integrators, the company’s inspection robot products have a gross profit margin of 67% in 2018 and a stronger profitability.
(3) “Small and beautiful” merger “low risk”, long-term investment value highlights the company’s pure business, since listing, focusing on infrared products and its application business, high technical barriers.
At present, the military market demand is rapidly released, and the penetration rate is continuously increasing. The civilian market such as power and temperature measurement has ushered in a booming period and market space. The company has been deeply cultivating the infrared field for many years.
There has been no mergers and acquisitions in the history of the company, and there is no high amount of goodwill.
Although the actual controller has a high proportion of pledges, about 68%, the average value of the pledge date gradually expands, and the risk of pledged liquidation is reduced.
Both “small and beautiful” and “low risk” have long-term investment value.
(IV) Stock repurchase is used for equity incentives, demonstrating confidence in development. On December 10, 2019, the company announced in the next 12 months that the total amount of stock repurchased shall not exceed 50 million yuan, and not exceed 100 million yuan. The repurchase priceNot more than 14.
80 yuan / share, the shares are used to implement equity incentives for core backbone employees.
We think this move shows the company’s confidence in future development.
As of January 15, 2020, the company repurchased only 368 million shares, and the future repurchase space is still connected.
3．The investment proposal considers the short-term and long-term effects of the infrared temperature measurement business. It is expected that the company’s net profit attributable to its mother from 2019 to 2021 will be 1.
36 billion, 2.
7.7 billion and 2.
63 trillion, EPS is 0.
30 yuan, 0.
60 yuan and 0.
57 yuan, currently corresponding to the corresponding PE is 44x, 21x and 23x.
With reference to the average assessment of 58x by comparable companies in 2020, the company’s estimated advantage is very obvious.
In addition, the company’s military and civilian markets have blossomed and bear fruit, and their growth is prominent, maintaining the “recommended” level.
Risk reminder: the risk of less than expected military orders and unfavorable development of the civilian product market